11/21/06 Interesting Developments in the Forecast Models

As you may know, I am a somewhat obsessed observer of the weather prediction models out there in cyberspace. My favorites are the GFS, MRF and NAM models, in order. These three seem to provide the highest level of reality. On Friday, last week, all three were showing bleak forecast for the upcoming Thanksgiving week. So much so, that it looked like a dry weekend. What was curious to me was that a significant low was forecast to churn off the PNW coast for days, but completely shred apart as it made it's way inland. Now some things you should know about storms during the late Fall and Winter, they rarely stay put and if they make landfall near the Puget Sound, then they will usually transit SE across the West. The Friday models showed neither of those things happening. Seem mighty unusual to me. Well, now all the models are showing what I thought might be the case; a more progressive movement towards the Wasatch (at least a grazing blow). Time will tell, but sometimes a sixth sense with these forecasts is in order.